Fosun Pharma (600196) Incident Review: Rituximab Large-Scale Approved to Boost Future Volume
Event: Fosun Pharma released an announcement: Rituximab injection (that is, recombinant human and mouse anti-CD20 recombinant antibody injection, trade name: Han Li Kang) added “500mg / 50ml / bottle” specifications and other supplementary applications for drug registrationApproved by the State Drug Administration for review and addition.
Investment points: After the company’s rituximab (Hanlikang) 500mg specification is launched in the future, it will improve the portability and economics of patient use, which will help Hanikang’s future volume.
For patients, the dosage of Hanlikang is about 500-700mg each time. After the 杭州桑拿 large-size product is available, the patient can use the large-size and small-size products together.
In terms of price, from the perspective of the original drug Merlot, the price of 500mg is 7,866 yuan / piece, which is equivalent to 1,573 yuan / 100mg, which is 31% cheaper than the 100mg specification Merlot.
We expect that the price of Hanlikang 500mg will be lower than the original research Merlot, and patients can achieve more preferential medication by using large and small specifications of Hanlikang.
In our opinion, Hanilcom has a price advantage compared with the original drug Merlot, and it is expected that it will replace the use of Merlot in the future and expand the number of patients who can afford the drug.
Rituximab has great market potential and the company’s first-mover advantage is obvious.
Rituximab is a first-line treatment for diffuse large B-cell non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, and can also be used to treat rheumatoid arthritis, with great market potential.
In 2018, Roche’s rituximab is expected to be equivalent to 444 trillion yuan in the world.
According to IQVIA data, the number of rituximabs before 2018 is about 20.
With the original research rituximab price cut into the medical insurance, the provinces across the country to implement the national medical insurance catalog, the sales growth rate of rituximab significantly increased.
At present, most of the existing companies’ rituximab similar drugs have entered the phase III clinical trial, but no second company has applied for listing. We expect that Fuhong Hanlin’s rituximab similar drugs will lead the second company by about one.Time of year.
According to our calculations, for the two indications of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and follicular B-cell lymphoma, Fuhonghanlin’s rituximab-like drugs can reach $ 1.5 billion per year in the future.
Profit forecast and rating: The company’s business scope covers a wide range of fields including pharmaceutical manufacturing, medical services, medical devices and diagnostics. It is a comprehensive medical group.
In the short term, due to the rapid increase in R & D investment and the impact of the decline in revenue from auxiliary medicines, the company’s performance has shown a range.
But in the long run, the company has a strong and powerful innovation gene, layouts multiple advanced treatment areas, and transforms the smooth progress of research and development projects. We expect that the company will continue to have new products listed in the future, and improve the company’s revenue structure while generating new performance value-added.
The company’s Fuhong Hanlin is a leading company in the field of monoclonal antibody drugs. Fosun Kate cooperates with the American Kite Corporation to transfer CAR-T products. The restructured company also owns Chongqing Medical Engineering Institute, Xingtai, Fuchuang and other small molecule drug R & Dplatform.
The rate of progress is similar to rituximab, which has been approved for marketing.
We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to its parent will be 31 in 2019-2021.
09 million yuan, 38.
5.3 billion, 48.
1.9 billion, with EPS of 1.
21 yuan, 1.
50 yuan and 1.
88 yuan, corresponding to 20, 16, 13 times the current expected PE.
The company will change the listing of more new products in the future, which will gradually open up the growth space and give a buy rating.
Risk reminder: Outward M & A fails to meet expectations, risk of failure to develop new drugs, risk of consistency evaluation fails to meet expectations, integration is gradually expected, risk of product price reduction, and the risk of Fuhong Hanlin’s rituximab sales is less than expected